Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Which Box?

Newcomb's Paradox doesn't seem like much of a paradox. The assumption is that people would want the 1000 bucks in the first place. That'd be why they choose both. There is also the assumption that the really superior alien wasn't just pulling everyone's legs. There could be nothing in either box. The alien was lying.

Should the choices be already known to the alien, one would wonder why an alien would be so kind as to place a million bucks in the box chosen. Then again, if that were truly the case, then the alien would've just lied and had a good laugh out of people choosing the single box. Probability is against such people. Besides, the fun of surprising a rather superior alien who seems to know anything is probably worth a million bucks in itself

Assuming that the alien wasn't lying, however, a gambler would likely choose the mysterious million or nothing box. After all, the thousand bucks isn't fun if you never knew if your choice somehow affected your chance of getting the million.

All in all, what if the alien was just bluffing that it knew what you would think? Humans are such gullible creatures.

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